Abstract Fragmentation of natural areas alters the natural landscape, removing native vegetation and creating an anthropic matrix. In order to better understand the consequences of grazing in areas of campo rupestre and forest, the present study aimed to analyze changes in the vegetation of Cerrado and Atlantic Forest, in the Southern Espinhaço, between 1979 and 2015. The vegetation of the study area was identified as arboreal (forest), or herbaceous or shrubby (campo rupestre) by visual classification of a mosaic of aerial photographs from 1979 and the supervised classification of land use from a Landsat 8 image from 2015. Differences in vegetation were analyzed using a transition matrix based on the “Markov model”, which indicated conversions of vegetation classes due to the misuse of land, mainly as pasture. The results indicate the conversion of arboreal vegetation area into areas of exotic herbaceous vegetation, and stability in the area of shrubby vegetation.

RESUMO Este estudo tem como objetivo realizar análises econômica e de risco de investimento em plantios de eucalipto situados em Minas Gerais, considerando a influência do custo do seguro de florestas, evidenciando o seu impacto no projeto. Os custos de implantação e condução são oriundos de plantios de eucalipto localizados no Vale do Jequitinhonha, Minas Gerais. O custo do seguro de florestas foi obtido por meio de uma simulação de cotação junto à uma seguradora. Para a avaliação econômica utilizou-se o Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), a Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR) e o Benefício Periódico Equivalente (BPE). Procedeu-se a análise de sensibilidade de risco pelo método de Monte Carlo. A análise econômica realizada foi considerada viável por todos os indicadores utilizados em todas as três situações trabalhadas. Mas, pela análise de risco de investimento, tem-se a probabilidade de 11,5% de chances do valor de VPL estar abaixo de zero na situação 1, 18,5% na situação 2 e 25% na situação 3. O custo do seguro de florestas aumenta a probabilidade de valor negativo para os indicadores econômicos, pois ele aumenta o custo do projeto, porém ele foi input o que menos influenciou no valor final do VPL. A subvenção do governo reduz a probabilidade do risco de investimento, uma vez que diminui o custo do seguro de florestas.

ABSTRACT The objective of this study is to carry out economic and risk assessment of eucalyptus plantations located in Minas Gerais, considering the influence of the cost of forest insurance, evidencing its impact on the project. The costs of implementation and driving come from eucalyptus plantations located in the Jequitinhonha Valley, Minas Gerais. The cost of forest insurance was obtained through a simulation of a quote from an insurer. For the economic evaluation, the Net Present Value (NPV), the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (EPB) were used. The risk sensitivity analysis was performed by the Monte Carlo method. The economic analysis was considered viable by all indicators used in all three situations. However, by the analysis of investment risk, we have a probability of 11.5% chance of NPV being below zero in situation 1, 18.5% in situation 2 and 25% in situation 3. The cost of Forest insurance increases the likelihood of negative value for economic indicators, as it increases the cost of the project, but it was input that less influenced the final value of the NPV. The government grant reduces the likelihood of investment risk as it lowers the cost of forest insurance.